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The Presidency: An Opportunity to Show Leadership
by Eze Umezuruike
9th JUL 2007
Interestingly, Nigeria’s newly elected President, Umaru Musa Yaradua, has been very forthright about his interest in a ‘unity government’. Referring to a government with a semblance of being inclusive of people from every section of the country and every political party, his aspiration is not all together surprising.
The April elections in Nigeria were viewed by most observers as probably the most controversial to date. In most parts of the country, there were reports of elections not holding while results were announced. While the country experienced far less violence than had been anticipated, there was a strong air of unease, not in the least as a result of the high level of security presence in the country. Armoured vehicles and security personnel who were armed to the teeth were perceived as a show of strength by the incumbent government and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Unsurprisingly, most complaints during the election were largely muffled. The court actions and public outcry started, in earnest, later than seemed logical. It was almost as though the citizens had suddenly been awoken from the shock and trauma of the elective exercise they had witnessed for about two weeks. If the elections were traumatic to Nigerians, it was the possibility of having none, which seemed not so remote in the preceding weeks to the elections, which sapped the strength from them.
By the middle of December 2006, when Yaradua was presented to the country as PDP’s Presidential candidate, Nigerians were at once pleased about the signal of a democratic change over of leadership and also resentful of the tactic employed by the PDP which appeared to attempt to force a leader upon them. Given the melodrama that was a perceived attempt by the former President, Olusegun Obasanjo, to secure a third term in power, the manner of the ruling party in introducing its Presidential candidate to the country seemed abrupt.
The circumstances which produced Yaradua as a President almost certainly inform his aspiration for a unity government. Yaradua, the mild-mannered former state governor who is often described as one of the most honest and objective political leaders the country has had in years, clearly has his job cut out for him. Seen as an installed, rather than an elected President of the country by most of his subjects, the genuineness of his intent will remain under great scrutiny. A radical departure from the path of his political party might create an opportunity for the hardcore elements within the party to promote a sense of instability amongst Nigerians. An adherence to party politics will confirm the fear of his critics and opposition outside of his party. Yet if he plies the middle path, he will appear mediocre and lack credibility on both sides.
The Aspiration
The fundamental changes required to open up the economy and introduce a genuinely competitive market, namely: curbing the financial power of the federal government and the diversification of the economy away from the Oil & Gas sector, provide no incentive for the hardcore party politicians. Members of this powerful clique in his party responsible for his enthronement understand that control of the country is easier through a centralised budget. Also, the level of financial benefit they enjoy cannot be matched by any return on investment from any industry or sector in the country. Commercial success of any sector or industry whatsoever, presents no urgent commercial opportunity to this clique. Yet, it is exactly these changes that will enable real growth in the economy, opportunities to many and a genuinely viable competitive economy which is multi-dimensional with lower risk exposure.
Any real change, therefore, will derive from the President’s ability to go against the grain while maintaining stability in the country. It is this opportunity to show leadership and make a lasting difference to the people of this country which is still rated as one of the poorest in the world that observers hope he will take.
In November 2006, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 7 per cent and claimed it as the best in years. But that does not tell the full story. In an advanced or developed economy, 7 per cent GDP growth will be good news. But consider an economy whose currency devalued by over 100 per cent in fifteen years, with real inflation rate in the double figures and you find that there is a long way to go yet.
But it is a good sign as this growth has been driven mainly by fiscal and monetary policies pronounced by Obasanjo at the start of his government. These appear to have sent out the right signals and created a natural momentum which has driven some of the growth in the economy. Some of these macroeconomic policies have yielded good results. The currency has been considerably stable for the past four years and there has been increase in foreign currency deposits in the country by people who previously might have been worried about the exchange rate wiping out their savings and investment yield. There is less reluctance amongst investors, globally, to put their funds in Nigeria.
It is the ordinary Nigerian who has not felt the impact of the macroeconomic initiatives. Crime rate, level of unemployment, lack of electricity and water shortage seem to get worse. The deterioration of infrastructure in the past eight years is inconsistent with the surplus achieved form oil in the past few years. What most will find very intriguing is Obasanjo’s statement, as quoted in one of the major dailies, at the launch of a cement factory a few weeks before he left office. On that occasion, he is reported to have proclaimed that Nigeria needs manufacturers not traders. That statement seems inconsistent with his government’s failure to develop the nation’s infrastructure which is arguably fundamental to the development of a manufacturing economy. The inclination of enterprise towards commerce, as opposed to manufacturing, must rightly be perceived as a function of lack of infrastructure. It is a great idea to have a manufacturing economy; more so to have the traders and commercial leaders with the right skills to take the products to market and the right skills to deliver the service wrapped around the products and market.
Compelling Reasons for Change
The job ahead is an uphill one for the President. The several disgruntled sections of the country might need appeasing, but perhaps no approach might be as effective as one which lifts a cross-section of the society from poverty. A diversified, multi-dimensional economy will provide opportunities to a greater number of Nigerians and so will a greater control of the economy by the states. The financial control shift to the states will also take away the colossal pressure on the federal government. There is also an argument which says that it will reduce the level of sycophancy in the country which fuels corruption and hinders enterprise.
Observers need early signs from the President to be convinced of his commitment to real change. Observers have blamed the delay in the release of ministerial list for the Yaradua administration on former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s wish to vet the nominees before they are made public. Since he was made the chairman, Board of Trustees of the PDP, the former President has been playing a major role in the decisions of the new administration. Apart from the ministerial list, Obasanjo it was gathered, is also responsible for the delay in the composition of the committees of parliament. Being the board chairman of PDP, the lists of members of committees and their leaders, were reportedly sent to him to vet and approve before they are made public.
Some noise has been made about reviewing the contracts and deals which were hastily concluded in Obasanjo’s last hours amidst a lot of controversy. A lot of these deals involved the sales of government interest and shares in business entities including some of the country’s most important oil refineries. A lot of the controversy surrounding these deals emanate from the apparent lack of adherence to due process. It will be interesting to see what comes out of these reviews.
Appeasing everyone in a nation of over 140 million people is near impossible. So-called unity governments the world over have hardly worked. Perhaps what will show real leadership will be addressing the fundamental economic issues the country faces. Doing this is rather crucial for the country but will bring Yaradua in direct collision with the system that brought him into power. There is no easy way to rule this country and it is also very difficult to predict any policies in the government.
As one university professor once said of this rather prayerful nation, “Nigeria is far too politicised. Ask Nigerians to go to heaven today and they will hold several meetings first and possibly eventually turn down the offer. There is not much logic to what happens in our country. A lot of our value systems don’t stack up”.
It is difficult to see how things will turn out different, but when you consider the great potential of the economy and the good signs that are emerging, you might feel that the President might just grab this opportunity to turn this around in earnest. There are not plenty of markets globally with the sort of investment yield available in Nigeria. The exchange rate has become remarkably stable and there are several sectors of the economy that are yet not optimised (never mind maximised). There is abundance of cost-effective labour to compete globally, skilled resources to drive a middle-class economic base. Throw in a competitive market, with an infrastructure to support it and you have a compelling prospect and reason for any well-meaning President to show leadership.
